In December 2022, the overall business climate of aluminum smelting industry was in the middle and lower part of the normal range. The operation characteristics are as follows:
First, the price of aluminum fell year-on-year and rose month-on-month. Several factors have kept aluminum prices on the decline heading into December 2022. Domestically, after the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, with the arrival of the peak of infection, the employment rate of most downstream enterprises declined, and the weakening of the demand side had a certain impact on the aluminum price. Internationally, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the expected peak interest rate is about 5.1%, the impact of aggressive interest rate increases on the market gradually emerged, and the upward pressure of aluminum prices is greater. In December, Shanghai Aluminum main contract between 18321 yuan/ton ~19244 yuan/ton, the average price is 18782 yuan/ton, down 591 yuan/ton, down 5.1%; A month-on-month increase of 242 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Shanghai aluminum main contract price trend see figure.
Second, overall production remained stable. In November 2022, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity showed an overall growth trend. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan, Guangxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia actively resumed production, and their operating capacity continued to grow. The electrolytic aluminum operation capacity in Guizhou has declined. Due to the rising power consumption in Guizhou, the shortage of high calorific value coal, and the oversupply of water and electricity, Guizhou Power Grid has issued a notice on the load management requirements for electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and ordered Guizhou aluminum plants to reduce the load by 20% of the daily load allocation, reducing the production capacity by about 270,000 tons. By the end of November 2022, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity had reached 40.89 million tons, with an operating rate of about 90.9 percent. In November 2022, the national output of electrolytic aluminum was 3,406,000 tons, up 9.4% year on year, and the average daily output was 114,000 tons, down by 0.1 tons month on month and up by 11,000 tons year on year. Alumina output was 6.803 million tons, up 12.3% year on year, and the average daily output was 227,000 tons, down 10,000 tons month on month and up 25,000 tons year on year. The monthly average daily output of aluminum smelting products is shown in the figure.
Source: China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association
Author: Wang Hao