Aluminum Spring Festival trend
Step into the continued weakness of aluminum prices in January and return to the logic of strong expectations and weak reality. Southwest dry water limit load, Guizhou has three rounds of production reduction and pressure reduction, after the arrival of the wet season is expected to gradually slow down pressure. The demand is significantly affected by the decline of orders in the off-season and the surge of workers' cases. As the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream have an early holiday and consumption is difficult to improve. Social banks have experienced a large increase in the past two weeks. Negative factors pile up, aluminum price downward space increase, aluminum price is expected to run below the weak eight thousand.
Alumina: This week, the price of alumina was stable. The production cost pressure of alumina enterprises in Jinzhou-Henan area is still large, combined with the recent freight increase, resulting in the alumina enterprises' willingness to resume production is still low. However, the recent increase and resumption of electrolytic aluminum production is mainly concentrated in Sichuan and Gansu. However, due to the power shortage in Guizhou, the performance of the demand end is not satisfactory, and the alumina price is expected to be volatile.
Electrolytic aluminum: this week after the fall of Shanghai aluminum shock. At present, the macro has limited impact on aluminum prices. This week, aluminum prices fell mainly due to the pressure of weak fundamental demand and exceeding expectations. However, later supply reduction forms certain support for aluminum prices, and after approaching the cost line below, aluminum prices show signs of stopping falling.